This morning the idea I have is that we live in an area (the Phoenix valley) that is highly subjected to "Storm Grazing".

What do I mean by "grazing"?

I am a big fan of dictionary.com. Here is the link to the definition that I mean for grazing.

http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/grazing
grazed, graz·ing,
1. to touch or rub lightly in passing.

How do I apply this to local meteorology?

We regularly have storms that skirt by the edges of the valley with little influence on most everyone in the Phoenix area. Yesterday was a good example of this. I come into work at 3:30 AM in the morning and find a number of reports of hail, lightning, rain, and wind gusts, most all which happened out side of the valley. I am comforted by the information that no major damages are reported and think about the fact that we are running a huge rain deficit (3" below normal) for the water calendar year (I'll explain water calendar in a future post) and we did not see a drop of rain in the valley yesterday.

To me, good forecasting is like hitting a target. That is why I really like our very localized Futurecast "on-air" forecast map. It really helps pinpoint the storms and when and where they will hit. Lately, it has been very accurate, but a lot of that is dependent on the model data. For those of you interested in looking at model data and how it works here is a good link:
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/ensembletraining/

Grazed by the fury of severe weather, we calmly go about out daily lives with little concern about the power of nature. As we approach and enter the Monsoon, "storm grazing" will increase and eventually more nasty storms will roll through the valley bringing greater respect and empathy for those who experience severe weather. So the next time you get "grazed" you may want to think about those who got hit and wonder what it would be like if the storm had come into your neighborhood.

Until next post....happy grazing:)
- Steve